Favorite setups from ST50 for week of 11/29

I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend.  Should  be an interesting week coming up.  Futures are up on ‘strong holiday sales’.  Ireland accepted the bailout, and things are ‘interesting’ in the Yellow Sea.

The SPY short-term is in a downtrend and has hit resistance a few times at around 120.25.  A move above 120.90 – 121 area would convince me that we are in the beginning of a new trend up.

This week’s Stocktwits50 list is absolutely fantastic.  I’ve looked over the names and I’ve come up with over 30 potential candidates.  In the interest of space and time, I am not going to regurgitate the entire list here.  The whole idea of these posts is pick the best of the best.  So, for this week, I will post the name of the stocks I like:

ACTG
SPRD
SHS
ATML
AREX
PXD
PCLN
MIPS
FOSL
ALV
GGAL
CPX
PCAR
LINE
WBC
TPCG
ARUN
ROK
AEZ
WLT
XXIA
BJRI
MGA

See what I mean.  You can literally throw a dart at this list and come up with winners.  I will try to post some individual charts from this list with entry points and profit targets during the week if and when I see or get into any of these stocks.

Have a great week.

Quick update on last week’s ST50 picks

With a shortened holiday week, and couple of nasty days for the SPY, some of the picks worked out very well.  Others did not trigger yet, but did not go down.  A very good sign.

TRS: Long over 18
Triggered and currently sitting at 20.33 – over 12%  gain

EXPD: Long over 52
Triggered and reached first target of 53. Currently at 52.85 and looks good.

MSB: Long over 42.50
Triggered and reached first target of 45 – gain of 5%

AREX: Long over 19.25
Did not trigger yet but looks good. Setup still valid.

APKT: Long over 44.30
Triggered and reached first target of 45 with high of 46.90 – gain of almost 5%

CMI: Long over 94.50
Triggered and reached first target of 98 – gain of over 3%

UAL: Long over 29
Triggered and has not reached initial target of 30.50 yet. Setup looks very good.

LFL: Long over 31.80
Did not trigger yet but setup looks good and still valid.

HUSA: Long over 16.30
Triggered and has not reached first target of 17.30 yet. Setup look ok, but I’d probably be cautious with 2 consecutive dojis.

I’ll post new recommendations later.  Have a great weekend.

Favorite setups from ST50 for week of 11/22

I hope everyone is having a great weekend.

Last week the market continued with a correction with a rough day on Tuesday, but stabilized and moved higher on Thursday and Friday.  The hourly chart of SPY is showing some resistance at 120.35 and 120.90.  If we can clear these levels, then I believe the uptrend resumes and eventually make new highs.  It is not uncommon for the Santa Rally to begin the week of Thanksgiving.

SPY Hourly:

SPY Daily:

There are some fantastic setups again this week from the Stocktwits50 list.  Way too many for me to include all in this post.  So I am picking what I believe are the best setups:

TRS: Long above 18

EXPD: Long above 52 with first target around 53

MSB: Long over 42.50 with first target around 45

AREX: Long above 19.25 with first target around 21

APKT: Long over 44.30 with first target around 45

CMI: Long over 94.50 with first target around 98

UAL: Long over 29 with first target around 30.50

LFL: Long over 31.80 with first target around 32.80

HUSA: Long over 16.30 with first target around 17.30

Please do not forget to do some more research if you decide to use any of these setups, such as any news announcements, earnings, etc.

Have a great week.

Favorite setups from ST50 for week of 11/15

I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend.

Well last week we had a pullback that lasted more than a single day.  Looking at the daily chart of the SPY, we actually had the worst week since early September.  Quite a pullback, huh?

Actually, there really is nothing to panic about yet.  We are still above the upper trendline on daily and weekly, and still above the 20MA on daily.  Volume was a little higher last week, but nothing that would raise all sorts of red flags.  The selling was not of the panic type on massive volume that we see in a top, or that would indicate a trend change.  So for now, it is my opinion that we are still in buy-the-dip mode.

ACTG: Bull flag setup on low volume pullback.  Long over 26.70 with initial target around 28-28-50

QCOR: Bull flag setup on low volume pullback.  Long over 13.20 with initial target around 13.70

MIPS: Low volume pullback.  Long over 14.90 with initial target around 16.50. Beautiful looking chart – earnings are out were great.

ATML: Low volume pullback.  Long over 10.25 with initial target around 11.  Massive gap is still intact.

PCS: Sideways consolidation on low volume.  This stock wants higher.  Long over 12.25 with initial target around 12.75.

AXTI: Bull flag setup with low volume pullback.  Long over 8.40 with initial target around 9.30.

AVGO: One day late in finding this stock.  Long over 25.85 with initial target around 26.50

CNH: Long over 44 with initial target around 46.

ROVI: Low volume consolidation.  Long over 53 with initial target around 54.50.

TZOO: Low volume consolidation.  Long over 36.50 with initial target around 38.

XXIA: Bull flag with low volume consolidation.  Long over 16 with initial target around 17.50.

As you can see, quite an extensive list tonight – and I’ve left out a few good looking charts too.  But these I believe look poised for continued up trend, unless the overall market decides to collapse next week.  As usual, please do your due diligence if you decide to pursue any of these stocks and watch out for news announcements, earnings, etc.

Good luck and good trading next week.

Favorite setups from ST50 for week of 11/8 and other picks

I hope everyone is having a great weekend.  Last week the market reacted very positively to all the news events, from the election results, to the Fed to the NFP.  Some major resistance areas were cleared on the SPY and as the chart below shows, the next major resistance area is 126-127.

Most impressively, and importantly, the financials came life and broke out on huge volume as can be seen by the chart of XLF:

This not only validates the rally, but in my opinion, gives it new life.  I believe we are starting a new wave/trend up.  However, having said that, this market needs some consolidation period or slight pullback to digest these gains.  The market still needs new catalysts to go higher, and there is plenty of momentum to go up.

I took a look at the Stocktwits50 list today.  Twice.  All the stocks on this list have fantastic charts.  The only problem is that most (not all), are making new highs on lower volume, with some major divergence between price and MACD and/or Money Flow.  I am finding it very hard to get on board or recommend most of these stocks at these levels, without some sort of low volume pullbacks/consolidation.  The most promising ones I found for next week are below (only 2):

NXTM: Huge breakout last week on very strong volume. Long over 22.50 on volume.

VHC: Low volume consolidation the last couple weeks. Looks poised to go higher. Long on break of upper trendline around 19.20.

In addition to the picks from ST50, I believe we will see some of the stocks that are not at 52 week highs but broke out last week (like the financials) make a move in the coming weeks.  Some picks I tweeted late last night are:

COV
FWLT
HEV
IO
ITT
JEC
JRCC
KSS
WFC

I hope you have a great week of trading and as usual, please do your due diligence on any stock you wish to pursue, including earnings dates, news releases, etc.

Lessons I learned from Trader Mike

When I started daytrading, I spent countless hours trying to find and learn from successful traders. I would search the internet and scour the forums to find experienced traders who have gone through the ups and downs of trading and were willing and humble enough to share those experiences with other traders. Of course, such magnificent traders are a dime a dozen on Stocktwits today. But a few years ago, one had to dig a little harder to find these traders.

One such trader was Trader Mike who has an excellent blog. It used to be a daily routine to visit his site, where I learned quite a bit about trading, Psychology, other traders (like Maoxian), keeping good records, self-analysis and keeping things simple. I also learned that many successful traders (if not all) follow quite similar paths of mistakes, experience and eventual success. One of my favorite posts is How I Became Such a Great Trader where he shares some valuable insight on his past experiences and some of the things he does to stay sharp.

Another lesson I learned is that while it is critical to focus on the technical and physical aspects of trading (trading plan, setups, charts, etc.), it is also very important to focus on the emotional aspects such as Psychology and self-affirmations. Now what's that you may ask? Trader Mike was not shy to share that he listens to a trade affirmations CD to make sure his mind stays 'right'. After purchasing the CD and listening to it, I understood why. I have converted the CD to MP3 and I listen to it as often as I can (on my iPod or PC). Here is a clip below:

Favorite setups from ST50 for week of 10/24

I hope everyone is having a great weekend.  As usual, there were some fantastic and endless ideas and analysis on Stocktwits this weekend.

Let’s start by taking a look at the weekly and daily charts of the SPY:

Price action is right at the weekly 200MA of around 119, and the resistance areas on the daily can clearly be seen on the chart as well.  The persistent trend keeps grinding higher in the face of some overbought conditions, but as we all know, that does not necessarily mean we will not go higher.

Personally, I will be exercising some caution next week and will not hold any overnight positions should the indexes exhibit any signs of weakness.  Regardless, there are still some great looking charts out there.

Please do you due diligence on the picks (such as earnings, news releases, etc.).  The recommendations are only meant as idea generation and my own personal analysis on these stocks.  Additionally, please use proper money management should you decide to get into any positions.  This are my weekly picks from the Stocktwits50 list:

APKT, UNP, INFA, CGNX, TIBX, INTU, CMG.  Entry points and commentary on the charts below:

Good trading and good luck next week.

Update on my ST50 picks this week

I want to start following up on my picks from the ST50 each week and report on their performance.

While many stocks on this list did extremely well, this is a way for me to record my results as well.

Here goes.  These were my picks from the weekend:

CTSH : Setup was long over 66.80 (sorry, typo in the chart). Setup triggered yesterday and was good for at least $1.45 (2.2%)

AMZN : Did not trigger until today (post earnings and was a big winner), good for at least $5 (3%)

LXK : Triggered long at 46 on Wednesday and was good for about $1.30 (2.8%)

NBIX : 8.25 was triggered on Tuesday and was good for about 40c (4.8%)

MIPS - probably my favorite setup: Triggered at 10 on Monday and was good for around 50c (5%)

All in all – not bad at all.  But then again the market has been unstoppable.  Hope some of you caught some of these moves.

I’ll post some more charts over the weekend.

Have a great weekend.

Some notes on trading style

I wanted to write a bit about how and why I post my trades on ST. My style is mostly day-trading and very fast-paced. Most of my my trades are placed using buy/sell stops - I wait for price to come to me. In a fast-moving market - I'll just jump in using market orders.

I might trade several instruments a day - EUR, GBP, CL, GC, TF and stocks. Overall, my strategy is to scalp 10-15 ticks at a time for 1 batch on the futures, and let the rest run. I trade in multiples of 2 contracts - minimum 2, and maximum 10. For stocks - it depends on the range and price of the stock, but the concept is similar. Depending on the market (trending, rangebound, counter-trend) - I am more selective with taking profits and may bail out at certain price levels. If a trade does not go my way after a few bars, I may bail out at break/even or small loss/profit.

Sometimes, I do not have time to post the prices that I am trading, or all my trades for that matter. The point is not to have other people go in at the same time and price as me. If any traders are using my calls to enter long/short the market - then I think it is a big mistake. You don't know what my plan is, or my strategy, or even my timeframe. You could be long based on hourly, and I could be short based on 1 minute, and we could both make money.

I use traders comments as confirmation of my signals - if some of my follows are short, and I get a signal to go short (which I will take regardless), then it is just that extra level of confidence. But if I am going long, and some of my strong follows are short, I am not going to switch just because they are - which actually happened today. I was long EUR and couple of excellent traders were short. I held and it ended up being a great winner.

Early last year, I wrote a post here on not blindly entering trades based on Stocktwits traders. The advice I gave back then still holds - even more so, as there many more traders now on ST, and some are truly fantastic follows. But unless you are paying for a subscription to some of these amazing traders, please use your own analysis and rules to enter and exit the market. Please make sure you have a trading plan. Not mine or anyone else on ST.

Good trading!

Some long candidates

I was going through the fantastic Stocktwits 50 list to see if I could find any candidates for long entries. You could literally print this out and throw darts at it to make picks - it's that good. I dubbed it the Vertigo List earlier today because currently all of the stocks in this list are way extended - but that does not mean they can't go up even more. There are some fantastic looking charts here and I think a few have more room to go.

Because of the way most of these charts are right now(virtually no pullback over the last month or so), I am concentrating on a few that broke out with volume on Friday. I will not post the charts here as I am finding posting charts and images on this blog to be a pain in the neck. I'll post the charts on ST.

Anyway, these are the stocks I'll be following next week for moves:

ENTR
MIPS
AMZN
CMG
ARMH
TRS
ALTR
CXO - Not much volume on Friday, but bounced nicely off 20MA and mild pullback.

Again - these are just from the ST50 list. I have not done any research on other stocks - which I might do if I get some time this weekend.

Have a great weekend...

ST - My (new) eyes to the market

I was actually hesitant to write this post for fear of being labeled a StockTwits Slappie now. I was asked recently 'I thought you quit ST' - I'll answer that question more specifically a bit later.

ST has quickly become an integral part of my trading routine. Whether it is during the day, at night, or over a lazy Sunday afternoon. I would argue that ST afterhours is absolutely jam-packed with information that can help you prepare for the next trading day/week. From tickerville's insightful videos, to daytrend's stocks that are trending up/down, and chartsandcoffee's excellent market commentary. So, I ask, what kind of an idiot would give up that kind of information?

During the trading day, ST is part of my arsenal for reading and 'feeling' the market - my new 'eyes' to the market. Just by looking at what others are discussing, trading, and 'feeling' helps me significantly assess the overall market. Mind you it does NOT SHAPE my assessment, it HELPS me in my assessment. There's a big difference, because I still rely on my TA, my interpretation of news and market internals to make my assessments and trading decisions.

When I first started using ST, it was actually a little difficult to use. I could not monitor EVERY single tweet that came in, while effectively keeping my eyes on the market for trades. Eventually, when I narrowed down the people I wanted to follow, I just concentrated on their tweets for the most part. During the lull periods, I go back and look for other tweets and try to discover some new 'gems' to follow. And make no mistake, there are some real gems out there - both discovered and undiscovered.

ST reinforced a couple of things about myself. Not only did my trading improve, but my discipline as well. Mostly, I find that my comments and tweets are really things that I am saying to myself, but also sharing it with literally thousands of people. Additionally, there is acually a sense of responsibility with making calls to buy and/or sell on Twitter. Especially when you have many people following and perhaps, just perhaps one took your call followed you on the trade. Tha't why I would also recommend my earlier post about how to take trades based on other followers.

The bottom line is that there are thousands of people on Twitter, with blogs, information, analysis, commentary, etc. that are MUCH more experienced and qualified than myself to discuss topics and issues related to the market and make stock picks. It will takes years for me to even be in the same league as some of these traders. So, I will continue to share my thoughts to whoever would like to listen, but more importantly, I will continue to learn and absorb what these traders are telling me.

Now to answer that question from earlier, what can I say? To quote Daffy Duck: I may be a little duck, but I am a greeeeedy little duck. In my case, I may be a hot-head, but I am a greeeedy (and occassionally nice) hot-head :-) I admit it, ST has made me a better trader. In the end that's what it's all about, isnt' it?

Good luck with your trading and I hope to see you on Twitter.

My opinion on how to trade using StockTwits followers

I got the idea for this post after watching twitterers on StockTwits take some trades based on the people they follow. Overall, there have been some GREAT calls made, but let's face it - no one is perfect. Yes, not even me ;-)

But I was amazed to see some people take trades based on a call made by a famous bottom=caller, who shall remain nameless, and then they started to tweet him things like: what's your stop on this, or what stocks are you short, etc. This prediction to short a certain sector was made in the morning. And as I type this post, the sector ETF is down about 5% from the open. I am sure this person (who has an EXCELLENT record BTW) has closed his position and gone the opposite direction, or stayed in cash.

My advice is this: if you are taking a trade based on someone you follow (including myself), please, please make sure it falls within YOUR strategy, trading plan, risk tolerance, etc. And even more importantly, use YOUR money management plan on the trade should it go against you. At the end of the day, this is your trading account and you are accountable to yourself and NOT the person you follow. In my case I am accountable to my beautiful wife.

So, please consider wisely whether or not you are comfortable with taking a trade based on StockTwits and above all, make sure it falls within your trading plan.

Good luck and have a great weekend.