Thursday, March 26, 2009

Market overview for March 24

There was no clear direction early this morning as we had difficulty breaking through the opening 60 minute range, and we remained range-bound most of the day. We brieflywent into positive territory and you could feel the bulls pressing their case. After chopping around for a while the market finally closed at the lows of the day on lower volume. We need to hold above Friday's lows to maintain this rally and we'll see if the bulls can buy pullbacks this week.

Started the day real nice with a long in ERY and SDS, then a long in NEM as gold rebounded. This was followed by a long in X as steel came on strong around midday and POT. I then sold all my long positions around lunch time expecting choppy conditions.

Attempted to take a long in MON in the afternoon, but after going nowhere real fast, I decided to cut it loose for a small loss. Took a couple of longs in SRS and SDS later in the afternoon and ended up with a nice gain after again being knocked around all over the place.

I took more trades than I normally would like, which is an indication of the choppy conditions in the market. However, going forward, I will post 15 Minute chart of SPY to show my buy/sell signals for the day. I will usually go long/short SDS when I get these signals and then look for opportunities in individual stocks or ETFS (like FAZ, SRS) moving in the same direction.

On the SPY chart, the first signal to go long the market was a break above the 30 Minute Opening range. After stalling and reversing, I expected the low of the OR and daily PP to be breached so I took a short in anticipation. However a reversal bar quickly formed on the 5 minute chart and I scratched the trade and went long on a close below the VWAP (twice). After lunch, things got interesting and very choppy - we bounced right off yesterday's highs (and close) and moved back down to the lows of the day. These moves/bounces from support/resistance offer very good risk/reward trades almost on a daily basis.

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