Why today’s Gap up is significant

Of course, all gaps are significant, and we have had a few recently.  Analyzing the weekly and hourly charts shows some interesting characteristics of this move.

I’ve mentioned a few times that in the short term, if the SPY can get over the 121 level, it would signal a new uptrend and new highs.  It looks like that’s exactly what happened.

The market has moved comfortably over 121, the 23MA has crossed over the 50MA on the hourly, and the next key resistance short term is at 124.

More importantly, in my opinion, is the weekly chart:

The pullback of the previous couple weeks brought the SPY back to the 200MA of the weekly, and the strong move last week bounced it off that level on strong volume.  This is a key area here for couple different reasons.  Not only is the 200MA in this area, but the 61.8% Fib retracement level of the high 2007 to low 2009 bear market is around 123, and the market had struggled with this area earlier this year.

This gap up (should it hold) will put some distance between the SPY and these key resistance areas (which will now become support).  I believe this uptrend will continue unless some unforeseen events occur and drop the market back below these levels in the near term.

In any event, ignore the noise, and follow the charts.  There are lots of opportunities out there.

Trade well.

Favorite setups from ST50 for week of 11/29

I hope everyone enjoyed the weekend.  Should  be an interesting week coming up.  Futures are up on ‘strong holiday sales’.  Ireland accepted the bailout, and things are ‘interesting’ in the Yellow Sea.

The SPY short-term is in a downtrend and has hit resistance a few times at around 120.25.  A move above 120.90 – 121 area would convince me that we are in the beginning of a new trend up.

This week’s Stocktwits50 list is absolutely fantastic.  I’ve looked over the names and I’ve come up with over 30 potential candidates.  In the interest of space and time, I am not going to regurgitate the entire list here.  The whole idea of these posts is pick the best of the best.  So, for this week, I will post the name of the stocks I like:

ACTG
SPRD
SHS
ATML
AREX
PXD
PCLN
MIPS
FOSL
ALV
GGAL
CPX
PCAR
LINE
WBC
TPCG
ARUN
ROK
AEZ
WLT
XXIA
BJRI
MGA

See what I mean.  You can literally throw a dart at this list and come up with winners.  I will try to post some individual charts from this list with entry points and profit targets during the week if and when I see or get into any of these stocks.

Have a great week.

How do you eliminate fear from trading?

Fear is one of the most difficult obstacles in trading.  Fear of losing money.  Fear of the unknown.  Fear of missing out.  it is the root cause of self loathe, self doubt and self sabotage.

I don’t really know if one can ever trade without ‘some’ element of fear - the key is controlling and channeling this strong emotion to become a consistently successful trader.

Discipline brings confidence.  Confidence overcomes fear.  But over-confidence destroys your account.  It’s a vicious cycle.

Some successful traders learned the business from the very best tutors and mentors.  So, they know what they have works and it reduces the ‘fear’ emotion.

Other traders have been trading for a long time and have had the financial means to sustain their ‘education’ of trading and have gained the proper knowledge and experience to overcome fear.

But what do you do if you are just starting out?  With a limited account?  You’ve purchased or discovered the best trading system and now it’s time to put it in action.  You’ve created a demo account and have been successfully paper trading for a while.  Now it’s time to go live.

After your first trade or two, you quickly discover things about yourself you never knew.  It’s not quite the same, is it?

Here are some tips that I think can help a trader overcome fear of trading:

1. Perhaps the most important factor: Accept the fact that you might lose on any particular trade.  Embrace the risk – if you do not (or cannot), then trading is not for you.
2. Start with small amounts, gain the confidence in your system and move your way up to larger positions.
3. Know your risk: Do not enter a trade without know EXACTLY where your risk is (stop).
4. Have an EXIT strategy: Not only do you need to know your risk, but what is the goal of a trade – Profit targets.
5. Do not trade with money you cannot afford to lose (like rent or mortgage money).
6. Once in a trade – do not change the rules.  I’ve mentioned this before, but it is amazing how many traders deviate from their plan once things do not go right (or even if they do go right).
7. Work in a stress free environment where you cannot be easily distracted during trading hours.  Causes mistakes and mental errors.
8. Never be afraid to take the next trade.  After a couple of losses you might be scared to take the next trade (unless your plan dictates you stop after X losing trades or $).
9. If you are unsure of the market or it’s direction, not taking a trade is not a bad idea.  Sometime the best trade is the one you did not take.
10. Never be afraid to ask for advice.  There are hundreds of awesome traders on Stocktwits who gladly make their time available to help and assist other traders.

As always, please make sure you have a plan and are following it properly.  It is the founding cornerstone of your trading career.

Stick to the plan and you’ll be alright.

Have a great weekend.

Quick update on last week’s ST50 picks

With a shortened holiday week, and couple of nasty days for the SPY, some of the picks worked out very well.  Others did not trigger yet, but did not go down.  A very good sign.

TRS: Long over 18
Triggered and currently sitting at 20.33 – over 12%  gain

EXPD: Long over 52
Triggered and reached first target of 53. Currently at 52.85 and looks good.

MSB: Long over 42.50
Triggered and reached first target of 45 – gain of 5%

AREX: Long over 19.25
Did not trigger yet but looks good. Setup still valid.

APKT: Long over 44.30
Triggered and reached first target of 45 with high of 46.90 – gain of almost 5%

CMI: Long over 94.50
Triggered and reached first target of 98 – gain of over 3%

UAL: Long over 29
Triggered and has not reached initial target of 30.50 yet. Setup looks very good.

LFL: Long over 31.80
Did not trigger yet but setup looks good and still valid.

HUSA: Long over 16.30
Triggered and has not reached first target of 17.30 yet. Setup look ok, but I’d probably be cautious with 2 consecutive dojis.

I’ll post new recommendations later.  Have a great weekend.

Happy Thanksgiving

I hope everyone is having a great week so far.

After living in the US for 20 years, I wanted to reflect a little bit and share what Thanksgiving means to me:

1. I wake up everyday and I am thankful that I live in a country like the United States of America.  I don’t think many people appreciate or understand how good we have it here until they visit and/or live overseas.  I’ve lived in 3 continents – so I know a little bit about this experience.
2. I am thankful that I live in a place where I can express my opinion without fear of persecution.  Anyone can practice their religion without fear of isolation.  I can express my views on politics without fear of going to jail.  I can vote and my vote actually counts. Whether our biggest differences are Democrat or Republican, MSNBC or Fox News, Tea Party or Liberal, Green Party or Independent, the fact that we can express these opinions in blogs and tweets freely, in a civilized manner, and without fear of retribution is a right not enjoyed by many people in this world.
3. I am thankful I live in a country where you can make something out of nothing.  Opportunities are endless and limited only by your imagination and hard work.
4. I am thankful that we live in a country where we take things for granted that others do not, like security, medicine, justice, electricity, water, and the most basics of human rights,
5. I am thankful that I have my health and am surrounded by people who mean the most to me in my life.  Some of us do not have that luxury.
6. I am thankful that I’ve gained the proper knowledge and experience to do what I love most – trading, and be rewarded nicely for my hard work.  And I can share these opinions and ideas with others.
7. I am thankful to the men and women of our armed forces who follow every order and put their lives in danger to protect our lives and liberties.

America is the melting pot of the world.  We come in all sizes, race, religion, gender, expressions, opinion.  But we all have one thing in common: we all love this great country of ours and there is no hurdle that we can not overcome as a nation, in good times or bad.

As the great Abraham Lincoln quoted:

“That this nation, under God, shall have a new birth of freedom, and that government of the people, by the people, for the people, shall not perish from the earth.”

“America will never be destroyed from the outside. If we falter and lose our freedoms, it will be because we destroyed ourselves”

Let us not destroy ourselves.

Have a safe and happy Thanksgiving everyone!

Favorite setups from ST50 for week of 11/22

I hope everyone is having a great weekend.

Last week the market continued with a correction with a rough day on Tuesday, but stabilized and moved higher on Thursday and Friday.  The hourly chart of SPY is showing some resistance at 120.35 and 120.90.  If we can clear these levels, then I believe the uptrend resumes and eventually make new highs.  It is not uncommon for the Santa Rally to begin the week of Thanksgiving.

SPY Hourly:

SPY Daily:

There are some fantastic setups again this week from the Stocktwits50 list.  Way too many for me to include all in this post.  So I am picking what I believe are the best setups:

TRS: Long above 18

EXPD: Long above 52 with first target around 53

MSB: Long over 42.50 with first target around 45

AREX: Long above 19.25 with first target around 21

APKT: Long over 44.30 with first target around 45

CMI: Long over 94.50 with first target around 98

UAL: Long over 29 with first target around 30.50

LFL: Long over 31.80 with first target around 32.80

HUSA: Long over 16.30 with first target around 17.30

Please do not forget to do some more research if you decide to use any of these setups, such as any news announcements, earnings, etc.

Have a great week.

Favorite setups from ST50 for week of 11/15

I hope everyone is enjoying their weekend.

Well last week we had a pullback that lasted more than a single day.  Looking at the daily chart of the SPY, we actually had the worst week since early September.  Quite a pullback, huh?

Actually, there really is nothing to panic about yet.  We are still above the upper trendline on daily and weekly, and still above the 20MA on daily.  Volume was a little higher last week, but nothing that would raise all sorts of red flags.  The selling was not of the panic type on massive volume that we see in a top, or that would indicate a trend change.  So for now, it is my opinion that we are still in buy-the-dip mode.

ACTG: Bull flag setup on low volume pullback.  Long over 26.70 with initial target around 28-28-50

QCOR: Bull flag setup on low volume pullback.  Long over 13.20 with initial target around 13.70

MIPS: Low volume pullback.  Long over 14.90 with initial target around 16.50. Beautiful looking chart – earnings are out were great.

ATML: Low volume pullback.  Long over 10.25 with initial target around 11.  Massive gap is still intact.

PCS: Sideways consolidation on low volume.  This stock wants higher.  Long over 12.25 with initial target around 12.75.

AXTI: Bull flag setup with low volume pullback.  Long over 8.40 with initial target around 9.30.

AVGO: One day late in finding this stock.  Long over 25.85 with initial target around 26.50

CNH: Long over 44 with initial target around 46.

ROVI: Low volume consolidation.  Long over 53 with initial target around 54.50.

TZOO: Low volume consolidation.  Long over 36.50 with initial target around 38.

XXIA: Bull flag with low volume consolidation.  Long over 16 with initial target around 17.50.

As you can see, quite an extensive list tonight – and I’ve left out a few good looking charts too.  But these I believe look poised for continued up trend, unless the overall market decides to collapse next week.  As usual, please do your due diligence if you decide to pursue any of these stocks and watch out for news announcements, earnings, etc.

Good luck and good trading next week.